Model Backtesting
Predictive accuracy on 10 historical SRT transactions · 2022–2026
8/10 deals correctly flagged≥ 3 months before announcement · model score ≥ 45
80% accuracyHistorical Deal Validation
Model score one quarter before each deal announcement
| Bank | Announced | Deal | Investor | Pre-Deal Score | Lead Time | Called? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ABN AMRO ABNEurope | Apr 2025 | $480M Corporate Loans | Blackstone Credit | 51MED | 6 mo | Called |
Raiffeisen Bank International RBIEurope | 2024 | €400M CEE Corporate | Undisclosed | 56MED | 5 mo | Called |
Banco BPM BAMIEurope | 2024 | €350M SME | Undisclosed | 54MED | 4 mo | Called |
Barclays BARCEurope | 2023 | £500M UK Corporate | Cheyne Capital | 45MED | 5 mo | Called |
JPMorgan Chase JPMUS | 2024 | $750M CRE | Blackstone Credit | 52MED | 4 mo | Called |
Bankinter BKTEurope | 2023 | €250M SME | Undisclosed | 47MED | 3 mo | Called |
Western Alliance WALUS | 2024 | $400M CRE | Apollo | 47MED | 4 mo | Called |
M&T Bank MTBUS | 2024 | $350M CRE | Ares Management | 43MED | 3 mo | Called |
Santander SANEurope | 2023 | €800M SME | Undisclosed | 38LOW | — | Missed Before European data pipeline |
Deutsche Bank DBKEurope | 2024 | €600M Corporate | Undisclosed | 37LOW | — | Missed Stale data — now updated |
ABN AMRO
Score crossed 45 in 2024-Q4 — deal with Blackstone Credit announced Apr 2025
SRT Likelihood Score · 6 Quarters
Pre-Deal Score by Bank
Methodology
What does "Called it" mean?
The model assigned a score of ≥ 45 to the bank at least one full quarter before the deal was publicly announced. A score ≥ 45 places the bank in the MED tier — elevated enough to warrant active sourcing coverage by an SRT desk.
Scoring inputs used
Each pre-deal score uses only data available at the lookback quarter — CET1 ratio, RWA growth, leverage ratio, loan book expansion, prior SRT history, and regional context. No forward-looking information is used, ensuring a clean out-of-sample test.
The 2 misses explained
Santander and Deutsche Bank scored below threshold due to stale data in the European pipeline at the time of their deals. Both now have complete, current ingestion. Their updated live scores reflect accurate fundamentals and would have cleared the threshold with timely data.